Plan B 4.0: Chapter 2

Population Pressure: Land and Water

"The French use a ride eel to teach schoolchildren the nature of exponential growth. A lily pond, so the riddle goes, contains a single leaf. Each day the number of leaves doubles - two leaves the second day, four the third, eight the fourth, and so on. 'If the pond is full on the thirteenth day, at what point is it half full?' Answer: 'On the twenty-ninth day.'" (Brown, page 31)

Civilization's Foundation Eroding

"The thin layer of topsoil that covers the planet's land surface is the foundation of civilization. This soil, typically 6 inches or so deep, was formed over long stretches of geological time as new soil formation exceeded the natural rate of erosion. But sometime within the last century, as human and livestock populations expanded, soil erosion began to exceed new soil formation over large areas." (Brown, page 32) 

Water Table Falling

"Since the over pumping of aquifers is occurring in many countries more or less simultaneously, the depletion of aquifers and the resulting harvest cutbacks could come at roughly the same time. And the accelerating depletion of aquifers means this day may come soon, creating potentially unmanageable food scarcity." (Brown, page 41) 

Farmers Losing Water to Cities

"The world's freshwater supplies are shrinking, and the world's farmers are getting a shrinking share of this shrinking supply. While water tensions among countries are more likely to make news headlines, it is the jousting for water between cities and farms within countries that preoccupies local political leaders. The economics of water use do not favor farmers in this competition, simply because it takes so much water to produce food." (Brown, page 42) 

Land and Water Conflicts

"As land and water become scarce, competition for these vital resources intensifies within societies, particularly between the wealthy and those who are poor and dispossessed. The shrinking age of life-supporting resources per person that comes with population growth is threatening to drop the living standards of millions of people below the survival level, leading to potentially unmanageable social tensions." (Brown, page 44) 

Cars and People Compete for Grain

"The price of grain is now tied to the price of oil. Historically the food and energy economics were separate, but now with the massive U.S. capacity to convert grain into ethanol, that is changing." (Brown, page 49)

The Rising Tide of Environmental Refugees

"Our early twenty-first century civilization is being squeezed between advancing deserts and rising seas. Measurable by the biologically productive land area that can support human habitation, the earth is shrinking." (Brown, page 51)